076 
FXCN01 CWAO 202100

MAIN WX DISCUSSION

BC/ALTA/YUKON..
WE SEE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT NEXT EPAC SYSTEM WHICH PUSHES E OF THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES BY 36HRS AND THEN ENDS NEAR OR PAST THE NRN ALTA/BC BORDER.
THE GEM MODELS ARE THE SLOWEST OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM..THE UKMET/CMC ENSEMBLE
MEAN ARE THE QUICKEST TO PUSH IT EWD..THEN THE AMERICAN MODELS/ECMWF AND
FINALLY THE CANADIAN MODELS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER AS
ARE THE GFS/NAM MODELS..GEM MODELS TRENDING SLOWER. AT THIS POINT WUD LEAN
TOWARDS GFS AS BEST COMPRMISE HENCE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN GEM MODELS. IN THE END
THE TRACK IS PRETTY SIMILAR..THE GEM RGNL IS ALSO LIKELY TOO DEEP AND MAX
AMOUNTS ARE QUITE AGRESSIVE ALONG CSTL SXNS.

SASK/MAN/MCKNZ..
MODELS PRETTY WELL IN LINE WITH SOME LGT PCPN AFFECTING NRN SASK/MAN LATER IN
PERIOD AHEAD OF SFC TROF THRU MCKNZ AND LEADING SFC WV/LO TRACKING INTO NRN
SASK.
MEANWHILE SFC LO/TROF WILL TRACK
SLOLY EWD ACROSS SRN SASK/MONTANA WITH ANOTHERT BAND OF LGT PCPN..MODELS
PRETTY SIMILAR AS WELL HERE. OTWZ SFC RDG DOMINATING.

ONTARIO/QUEBEC..
MODELS IN LINE WITH COLD NWLY FLO PERSISTING ACROSS THE RGN WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PERSISTING IN THE GREAT LAKES RGN AND ALSO OFF HUDSON BAY.

LABRADOR/BAFISLD..
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF DEEP SFC LO AS IT TRACKS NWD INTO DAVIS
STRAIT. HOWEVER GEM MODELS STILL END UP SOMEWHAT SLOWER LATER IN PERIOD WITH
FEATURE..NAM ALSO SLOWER BUT EUROPEAN MODELS/GFS/CMC ENSEMBLE MEAN FASTER. SAT
IMAGERY SUPPORTS A FASTER MOTION NWD HENCE WE LEAN TOWARDS FASTER TRACK NWD.
QPF PATTERN QUITE SIMILAR BETWEEN ALL MODELS WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST E OF
BAFISLD.

ATLANTIC CANADA..
GEM RGNL ENDS UP DEEPEST WITH NEXT SFC LO BREWING OFF THE E CST USA WHICH
THEN HEADS QUICKLY NEWD TOWARDS ERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM RGNL IS ABOUT 5-10MB
DEEPER THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS. AS WELL THE GEM MODELS ARE THE QUICKEST
PUSHING THIS FEATURE NWD. UKMET IS THE FURTHEST EAST AND WEAKEST WITH
ELONGATED SFC TROF JUST SE OF CAPE BRETON ISLAND AT 48HRS HOWEVER IS TRENDING
WWD. THE GFS IS BETWEEN UKMET/GEM RGNL IDEA..NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH SFC LO WELL
S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER SW OF THE GEM RGNL. CMC ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS SOMWHERE BETWEEN UKMET/GFS IDEA BUT IS TRENDING WWD AND SHARPER.
GEM RGNL LIKELY TOO DEEP AND ON THE FAST SIDE BUT OVERALL TRACK LUKS LIKE A GUD
COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT. EXPECT SIG SNOWFALLS ON WRN EDGE OF PCPN ZONE THRU
SXNS OF CNTRL NOVA SCOTIA..RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS IT WILL DEPEND
ON EXACT TRACK OF STORM. PCPN LIKELY TOO QUICK TO SPREAD NEWD INTO NFLD WITH
GEM RGNL IDEA.

END/THOMAS