200 FXUS64 KCRP 012052 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 252 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC HIGH MOVES E ACROSS THE CWA ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. MOSTLY CLR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E...A WEAK SLY FLOW WILL DVLP OVRNIGHT AND BEGIN TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE THE MN TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE DEWPOINTS INCREASE OVRNIGHT. WENT WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE N WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE AND MID AND UPPER 40S FARTHER S AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THRU TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS WELL. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNITE HRS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THRU TUE/TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE TX PABNHANDLE. && .FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES ARE VERY LOW...A GUSTY NW WIND IS ONLY REACHING BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONT THE RED FLAG WARNING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE RFW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. && .AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THRU TUE. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE OVERALL MEAN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE A PERSISTENT RDG AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG WITH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. SVRL PACIFIC SYSTEMS WL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN US RDG AXIS AND WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH SEWD. AN INITIAL S/WV WL PASS TO OUR NORTH WED NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WED EVENING/EARLY THU MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT WL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WED NIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL FNT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE RGN. ANOTHER S/WV ALONG WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC AXIS WL MEAN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH AXIS BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND PEAKING ON FRI AFTN. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN WL BE THE NET RESULT...ESPECIALLY ON FRI AND FOR AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST. WITH A COOL N/NE FLOW AND THICK CLOUD CVR... TEMPS WL LKLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY REACH THE UPR 40S ON FRI. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BREAKS DOWN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE S/WV SHEARS APART AND THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD AS RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC S/WV. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 40 77 62 83 49 / 0 0 10 10 10 VICTORIA 37 75 57 81 43 / 0 0 10 10 10 LAREDO 46 81 58 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALICE 41 78 56 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 47 74 66 77 50 / 0 0 10 10 10 COTULLA 39 79 55 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 40 78 59 84 49 / 0 0 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 48 75 67 78 53 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM MB/80...LONG TERM