614 
FXUS65 KGJT 231110
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH WYOMING TODAY THEN DROP DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE...WITH LITTLE FANFARE FOR THE WEST SLOPE. OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A FLURRY OVER THE HIGHEST AND MOST NORTHERN MTNS...EXPECT
LITTLE OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL SEE NO IMPACT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
COOLER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY MORNINGS LOW TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AMPLIFY STRONGLY OVER THE GRT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE LINE
APPROACHING THE UT/CO BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
WARM DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD IN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A DEEP
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
INHERITED POP OR TEMP GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PRONOUNCED PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. REPLACING THE RIDGE WILL BE A BROAD
WESTERN TROF...PROMISING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE AREA BY
THANKSGIVING. STILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS FROM EACH MODEL RUN. THE EC HAS MAINTAINED A TAD BIT MORE
UNIFORMITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE STARTED TO LEAN THIS
DIRECTION WITH THE UPCOMING FORECAST. THE EC BRINGS A CLOSED LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST...INLAND BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ENE INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS
SWEPT AROUND THE LOW WITH INCREASING DIFLUENT FLOW OUT AHEAD...
BRINGING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF EARLIER FORECAST WITH
INCREASING POPS WITH THIS SOLUTION BEING FAVORED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP MORNING LOWS UP AND DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE
HIGH...BUT WILL LOWER TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS COLDER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THURSDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH. SEVERAL WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH...KEEPING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN COLORADO TODAY BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM.....MC
LONG TERM......JDC
AVIATION.......JDC