631 FXUS64 KHGX 231556 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 956 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ON AND OFF OVER CWFA MAINLY WEST AND NORTH PORTIONS. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOIST LAYER COASTAL BEND SOUTHWARD WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRONGER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE MID 60S OVER OUR SW ZONES WITH THIS MOIST TONGUE PUSHING NW. WE UPDATED MORNING PORTION OF 1ST PERIOD MAINLY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...ZFPHGX ON TRACK. 37 && .MARINE... WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD IN THE 10-16 KNOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND COME UP OVER THE BAYS WITH HEATING. MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES. SCEC WINDS MAY BE ON TAP TONIGHT FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/ UPDATE... VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR OVER MOST SITES THIS MORNING... THE EXCEPTION TOWARD THE COAST. RADAR AND REPORTS INDICATE SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING AND WILL GO WITH VICINITY SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXCEPTION FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL BE AT KGLS AND KLBX TOWARD AND ALONG THE COAST. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WELL INLAND. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2008/ DISCUSSION... WARM AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AND A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. GFS PW VALUES LOOK A LITTLE HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO GPS VALUES AND THE NAM SEEMS MORE REFLECTIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE NAM...CAN AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER SOLUTION TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WAA PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. STRONG DOWNGLIDE ON MON NITE AND TUES WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO TEXAS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO GET SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS NOT AS DEEP AS FORECAST YESTERDAY AND IS NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED. WILL TEMPER ENTHUSIASM A BIT WITH REGARD TO RAIN CHANCES THU/THU NITE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH FRONT AND HAS THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. NOT SURE WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN RATHER POOR SO WILL CARRY POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND FINE TUNE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$