484 
FXUS64 KLUB 222350 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
550 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE WIND
WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE CAPROCK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO CIRRUS ABOVE 20K FT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/ 

SHORT TERM...
INITIAL LEE SIDE TROUGH THAT ENTERED THE CWA EARLIER TODAY IS 
GRADUALLY DISSOLVING FROM NEAR MORTON TO CHILDRESS IN RESPONSE TO A 
STRONGER LEE SIDE TROUGH EMERGING IN EASTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL 
TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE 
AREA OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE LESS PRONE TO FALLING BELOW 
FREEZING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL BE 
THE FOCUS FOR DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN TX 
PANHANDLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA 
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT UNTIL THIS TIME A RELATIVELY DEEP WSW 
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH THICKNESSES AN ADDITIONAL 30 METERS OR SO ABOVE 
THIS AFTERNOON/S VALUES. EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 
UNFOLD BY MIDDAY...BUT SPEEDS OVERALL ARE LOOKING TOO MARGINAL FOR 
FIRE WX CONCERNS.

LONG TERM...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON IMPACTS FROM A THANKSGIVING STORM 
SYSTEM. RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

AN AMPLIFYING SYNOPTIC RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN WILL HELP TO 
PUSH A PAC NW AIRMASS OVER THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 
PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 
SEASONAL AVERAGES MONDAY...AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION. MODERATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE 
SAID AIRMASS SETTLES TOWARD THE GULF COAST...AND THE WESTERN UA 
RIDGE AXIS INCHES EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE 
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MINOR WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT 
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...CONSENSUS IS FOR SOME ITERATION OF 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT TO DOMINATE IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE 
SOUTHWEST U.S. UA TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A WAA/UPGLIDE REGIME 
BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. SOME 
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL TIMEFRAME FOR INITIALLY 
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SINCE THE LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY 
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UA FEATURE. NONETHELESS WILL MAINTAIN 
SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND CHANCE /30 
TO 40 PERCENT/ POPS FAVORING THE EAST THURSDAY AS INCREASINGLY 
CURVED FLOW/ASCENT INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE EJECTION OF THE 
THANKSGIVING SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND IN 
THE SUBSEQUENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN. STILL APPEARS A RATHER STRONG 
FRONT WITH CANADIAN ORIGINS MAY RIDGE THROUGH THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE 
OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND WILL CONTINUE 
TRENDS TOWARD BELOW AVERAGE/GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THEN. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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