940 
FXUS64 KMAF 222325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTERLY 
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH. SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008/ 

DISCUSSION...
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT 
PERSISTS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY UNDER A SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE ALOFT.  SOME WIND AND CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL PREVENT 
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM OCCURRING MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WHILE 
READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...DUE IN PART 
TO CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FOG 
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE ANY 
MENTION IN THE ZONES OUT FOR NOW AS THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL 
LIKELY KEEP THIS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY 
TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL 
DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  LOW 
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS.   

AFTER A BOUGHT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY DUE TO 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER 
THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH.  NEAR TO ABOVE 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND AT THIS TIME...MEAGER CHANCES OF 
RAIN...WILL EXIST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS NEXT 
TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD.  THE LATEST CROP OF MODEL DATA STILL 
LEAVES MUCH UNKNOWN CONCERNING THE STRENGTH...LATITUDE AND TIMING OF 
SAID TROUGH.  FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS    
OVER SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND 
SLIGHT CHANCES MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE MAIN 
UPPER TROUGH IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.  

WINDY CONDITIONS COULD BE HAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
AND WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS 
HOLD TRUE AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THEN.  
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST ALL OF THE ABOVE ACCORDINGLY 
AS A FURTHER SOUTHWARD EASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS STILL NOT OUT 
OF THE QUESTION.  THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED 
BY A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  HAVE KEPT THE 
FORECAST DRY THESE PERIODS AND UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURE OFFERINGS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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