784 FXUS61 KOKX 022029 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 329 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... STRATO CUMULUS OVER THE WESTERN SECTION WITH JET STREAK INDUCED CIRRO STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NOTE THERE IS ONCE AGAIN LOTS OF CHAFF IN THE RADAR DATA SE OF LONG ISLAND. THE STRATO CUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND THE CIRRO STATUS WILL ADVECT OUT OF THE REGION RAPIDLY. I'VE GOT THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE CITY AROUND 22Z AND FOR SOUTHEAST CT AROUND 00Z. THUS EXPECT A GOOD VIEW OF THE CRESCENT MOON WITH VENUS AND JUPITER IN THE SOUTHWEST SKY THIS EVENING. A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WINDS SUBSIDE. THIS RESULTS IN GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS FROM MOS IS ACCEPTED - NEAR FREEZING IN THE CITY - 20'S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 12Z DETERMINISTIC NCEP MODEL RUNS AND 09Z SREF ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FROPA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE LOWERED BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO REACH 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS IN MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT - THOUGH CLOUDS FROM WARM ADVECTION ALOFT LIMITS SUNSHINE. TEMPS AGAIN ARE FROM BLENDED MOS. BREEZY TOO ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH - GALES POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS. COLD ADVECTION PREVAILS THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CARRY SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE INTERIOR...AS DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KILL MOST FLURRY ACTIVITY DOWN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED IS ON THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD. 1045 HPA HIGH CURRENTLY OVER AK WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CONTROL CONUS 12Z FRI. MSLP 1035 HPA OR SO. CAA ON FRI WITH TEMPS BLW CLIMO. BLEND OF MEN AND GMOS USED. SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRY LOW LVLS DESPITE MOISTURE AT THE -12 TO-15C LVL. PERHAPS A FLURRY BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS ATTM. GFS ENSEMBLES/OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12/00Z ECMWF PROG WAVES OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS H5 TROF DIGS SEWD INTO THE REGION. HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS. ALL MODELS DO KEEP THE SFC LOWS OFFSHORE SO PCPN TYPE WILL GENERALLY BE SN...EXCEPTION MAY BE PARTS OF LI AND ERN CT. FCST REFLECTS INCREASING CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ENDING SUN NIGHT. COULD SEE A MDT BAND BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND IF A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS AND IS ABLE TO TRANSPORT A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TO GO WITH THE STRONG UPPER LVL DYNAMICS. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FOR MON WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TUE/WED...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME ACTIVITY IN STORE. ATTM SOME FZ PCPN MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH RIDGING OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. THEN HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS, BUT SEAS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 9 FT RANGE ON THE OCEAN. THUS, SMALL CRAFT ON THE OCEAN IS CONTINUED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. BASED ON LATEST WAVE WATCH...SEAS ON EASTERN OCEAN DON'T FALL BELOW 5 FT (HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA) UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION EARLY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT WE MAY APPROACH GALES AND THUS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA RANGE. LONG TERM...POSSIBLE SCA WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY FRI. CHANCE OF SHSN OVER THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH CAA. WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL DROP SEWD LATE SUN RESULTING IN POSSIBLE GALES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JST NEAR TERM...JST SHORT TERM...JST LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MET MARINE...JMC/JST HYDROLOGY...JST